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Myron Hecht, Herbert Hecht, Use of Importance Sampling and Related Techniques
to Measure Very High Reliability Software, IEEE Aerospace 2000 Conference, Big Sky,
MT, March, 2000
Abstract: Processors and the associated software have grown more complex over the
past two decades as rad hardened high performance processors processors are becoming
common and mission lengths grow to decades -- or even centuries in the case of proposed
interstellar missions. Thus, the software aspects of reliability will become an
increasingly important concern. Current methods of software and system reliability
prediction and whether measurement based or incorporating reliabilty growth models
and can not accurately predict failure rates of greater than 10-6 per hour. This
paper describes a new methodology for more accurately predicting failure rates of
very high reliability systems. The methodology enhances conventional measurement-based
reliability assessment with a method incorporating the results of stress testing
called importance sampling. By means of importance sampling in conjunction with
a system model, acceleration factors can be associated with stress testing much
as is currently done with elevated temperature life testing of hardware components.
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